By Mustapha K. Nabli

'A significant resource of vulnerability within the CE5 is their nascent monetary structures and their skill to address huge and lengthening quantity of capital. because the adventure of East Asia demonstrates, a excessive precedence could be given to bettering the standard and function of the banking system.' - From 'Financial Integration, Vulnerabilities to trouble, and ecu Accession in 5 relevant ecu nations' the target of this research is to aid examine the potential vulnerabilities in a couple of imperative ecu international locations as they continue with international monetary integration and ecu accession. The file specializes in these nations slated to be the 1st within the area to affix the ecu, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Poland, Slovenia (CE5). The learn: • Discusses the context and provides a brief description of the CE5 international locations' adventure in attracting capital flows • Analyzes the manifestations of vulnerability to monetary crises and sustainability of international capital flows to the CE5 • translates the consequences and attracts implications in view of the preliminary stipulations of a number of the nations • Compares the european accession of the CE5 to the Southern Mediterranean international locations' accession to the EC within the Nineteen Eighties • attracts conclusions and makes suggestions

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GDP growth in the CE5 recovered between 1992 and 1993. They generally performed much better than the slower reforming TEs (figure 1). Capital flows played a major role in this process of adjustment and recovery, even though the five countries differ widely in terms of their recent performance as well as their experience with capital inflows. Page 8 Figure 1 Real GDP Growth Rates Sources: World Bank (1996) and IMF (1998), April. Comparative Perspective The manifestations and causes of vulnerability are discussed in a comparative perspective, focusing on the recent history of the EA5 and the SM3 at the time of their accession to the EC.

The near-to-medium term prospects for the international environment for the CE5 are also discussed, particularly the possible impact of the East Asia crisis and the introduction of the Euro. In section 4 EU accession of the CE5 and the lessons from the Southern Mediterranean countries' accession to the EC in the 1980s are discussed. Concluding remarks and recommendations are given in the section 5. 1 Context and Comparative Approach This section presents a short discussion of the context and experience of the CE5 in attracting capital flows since the beginning of the capital surge (in 1992-93 for some countries and a few years later for others).

First, from the experience of the recent East Asia financial crises as well other crises, predicting such crises is very difficult, if not illusory, endeavor. The causes and unfolding of crises tend to vary and evolve, with new features appearing all the time. This report is not, therefore, about predicting any possible crises in the CE5. What the recent experience and literature have shown is that more attention should be given to the appearance of vulnerabilities or to warning indicators of the risk of unsustainability.

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